Blackjack Odds of Winning. As mentioned previously, the best possible house advantage you’ll usually see at blackjack tables is 0.5% or a little bit less, even with a solid understanding of basic blackjack strategy. However, it’s theoretically possible for blackjack to actually favor the player with the right rule sets. To win at blackjack, you need to get closer to 21 than the dealer, without going over. That sounds basic, but a key to blackjack for beginners is understanding the odds and basic strategy of when.
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Blackjack Probability and Blackjack Odds
To fully understand the game of blackjack, you must understand and master blackjack odds. It's crucial to know how the casino gains its edge and how it helps them win. It's also important to understand blackjack odds such as the odds of hitting a 10 or the odds of being dealt a blackjack. You can read over these blackjack odds charts to help understand the logistics behind blackjack.
Casino and Dealer Advantage in Blackjack
In most casino games of blackjack, the house advantage (the dealer advantage) is ~ 8%. The house gets this advantage by the dealer being the last player to act. By acting last, all other players have already made their decisions and could quite possibly bust before the dealer has his turn.
By using correct blackjack basic strategy, you can turn the casino edge in blackjack from 7%-8% down to 0.5%. If you correctly use advanced card counting techniques, you can often change blackjack odds and give yourself the advantage over the casino. Manipulating the house odds to your favor is the reason most casinos don't allow card counters to play blackjack.
Probability of Busting on a Hit
It's very important to know the probability of your hand busting when you are holding any total in the game of blackjack. The following odds chart shows the blackjack odds of busting, depending on your current hand value:
| Hand Value | % Bust If You Hit |
|---|---|
| 21 | 100% |
| 20 | 92% |
| 19 | 85% |
| 18 | 77% |
| 17 | 69% |
| 16 | 62% |
| 15 | 58% |
| 14 | 56% |
| 13 | 39% |
| 12 | 31% |
| 11 or Less | 0% |
Two-Card Count Frequencies
This interesting blackjack odds chart is the two card count frequency chart. This chart shows the percentage chance that you will be dealt a hand in each given value range. The most important frequencey to note is the chance of being dealt a natural blackjack (natural 21 value. The odds of being dealt a natural blackjack are merely 4.8%. Following this chart you will see that the most common two card hand, at 38.7%, is a hand totaling 1-16, which is considered a decision hand.
| Two Card Count | % Frequency |
|---|---|
| Natural 21 | 4.8% |
| Hard Standing (17-20) | 30.0 % |
| Decision Hands (1-16) | 38.7% |
| No Bust | 26.5% |
| TOTAL | 100.0% |
Dealer Final Hand Probabilities
This blackjack odds chart shows the dealer final hand probability. These are the percentages that the dealer will end up with a hand totaling each corresponding value (up to 16). Read over this chart to understand the odds that the dealer has to make his final hand.
| Dealer Final Hand Value | % | Cumulative % Total |
|---|---|---|
| Natural 21 | 4.82% | 4.83% |
| 21 (3 or More Cards) | 7.36% | 12.19% |
| 20 | 17.58% | 29.77% |
| 19 | 13.48% | 43.25% |
| 18 | 13.81% | 57.06% |
| 17 | 14.58% | 71.64% |
| 16 | 28.36% | 100.00% |
Player Advantage vs. Dealer Up Card
The first two columns in this odds chart explain the dealer's chance of busting, depending on the up card that he is showing. You should note that the dealer has the highest chance of busting when he is showing a 5. The third column in this chart shows the player advantage of using basic strategy, compared to each up card the dealer is showing. You can see that the player has the highest advantage of 23.9%, when the dealer is showing a 5. When the dealer is showing any card that is 9 value or higher, the player is in the negative advantage range.
| Dealer Up Card | Dealer Bust % | Player Advantage % with Basic Strategy |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | 35.30% | 9.8% |
| 3 | 37.56% | 13.4% |
| 4 | 40.28% | 18.0% |
| 5 | 42.89% | 23.2% |
| 6 | 42.08% | 23.9% |
| 7 | 25.99% | 14.3% |
| 8 | 23.86% | 5.4% |
| 9 | 23.34% | -4.3% |
| J,Q,K | 21.43% | -16.9% |
| A | 11.65% | -16.0% |
Effects of Removing Cards from a Deck
When looking at the odds of removing certain cards from a 52-card deck, some cards have a much greater effect on blackjack odds. To create the strongest card counting system ever invented, you would have to incorporate all of these slight and subtle differences into the numbers to be a completely accurate system.
Removing every 5 from a deck cards would make the largest impact of improving your blackjack odds, as a player. On the other hand, removing every Ace from a deck of cards would make the largest impact on improving the odds for the casino.
| Card | % Effect of Removal |
|---|---|
| 2 | 0.40% |
| 3 | 0.43% |
| 4 | 0.52% |
| 5 | 0.67% |
| 6 | 0.45% |
| 7 | 0.30% |
| 8 | 0.01% |
| 9 | -0.15% |
| 10 | -0.51% |
| A | -0.59% |
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How To Win At Blackjack
How to Develop the Traits of a Winner at Blackjack
The owners of this website believe that there is nothing wrong with gambling. For most people, gambling is healthy and normal, and some people might argue that gambling is inherent to the human condition. But you came to the site for strategy tips and how to become a winner at blackjack, not for validation that it's okay to be a blackjack player. And while lots of people can gamble and lead healthy, enjoyable lives, not many people can win on a truly consistent basis. So we've listed some of the traits to develop within yourself to become a winning blackjack player below.
Winning Blackjack Trait #1 - Knowledge
Winning blackjack players know how to play the game. This means having a complete knowledge of how to play blackjack, not just a basic understand of the gameplay and how to place bets. To win at blackjack, you start with the fundamentals of basic strategy - how to play hard hands and how to play soft hands. You alos learn when to split pairs and when to double down against the dealer. Then once you've mastered that, you start learning more advanced strategies, like simple card counts, dealer tells, and shuffle tracking. It's important to note that the advanced strategy stuff, the stuff that gives you the edge, comes AFTER you've learned the basic stuff like basic strategy.
Winning Blackjack Trait #2 - Self Awareness
Some people are afraid of reality and live in a perpetual state of wishful thinking and delusion. Are you one of those people? If so, it's okay, but getting a firm grounding in reality is one of the first steps in becoming a consistent winner at any kind of gambling, black jack included. Hunches prevent winning blackjack play because they encourage mathematical mistakes. Selective memory is a fault almost everyone shares, but it's death to your hopes of winning at blackjack. Believe in luck? Even a little? You need to get over that too; beating blackjack is a mathematical endeavor, and there is no such thing as luck, just standard deviation.
Winning Blackjack Tip #3 - Dedication
Learning to play blackjack as an expert is HARD. Not only do you have to memorize all the correct strategic moves, you also have to consistently make the correct plays. Otherwise you're just going to lose. The house edge will increase with every mistake you commit, and your bankroll will dwindle to nothing. You have to be dedicated enough to learn to play correctly, then disciplined enough to actually play correctly, and then obsessed enough to keep good records of your results. (You cannot manage what you did not measure.)
Winning Blackjack Tip #4 - Stubbornness
Correct blackjack plays will sometimes meet with disbelief and 'helpful suggestions' from other players. You have to be stubborn enough to ignore any kind of peer pressure. Successful card counters will receive heat from the casino management. You have to be stubborn enough to play anyway, even if it means playing in disguise. Friends and relatives might try to discourage you from becoming a card counter for a variety of reasons. Are you hard-headed enough to ignore them and do what you want to do anyway?
Online Blackjack Odds Of Winning Numbers
Winning Blackjack Tip #5 - Experience
The only way of getting experience is to practice. And in black jack, that means you have to play. The more you play, the more experience you get. And the more experience you have as a blackjack player, the better your chances of beating the game become. Experienced players make fewer mistakes, they're able to concentrate for longer periods of time, and they're able to analyze new situations and strategies quickly in order to determine whether or not they're advantageous to their play. You can get some experience playing blackjack online, but you should also get some actual casino experience playing as often as you can. There are plenty of low stakes black jack games where you can get your feet wet these days.
If you have some of the traits of winning blackjack players above already, then great - you have a head start over the competition. If you have none of these traits, maybe blackjack isn't for you at all. That's okay and there is no shame in it. But if you have some of those traits to some degree, you can develop these characteristics in yourself in order to become a real blackjack expert. And the satisfaction available to those people who can march to the beat of their own drummer and be truly excellent at something is unparalleled.
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